Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered modest top-line growth and stronger profitability: revenue $109.3M (+2.4% y/y), Adjusted EBITDA $23.6M (+11.6% y/y), while GAAP EPS was a loss of $(0.13) vs $(0.08) y/y due to higher Amazon warrant charges and an $8.1M non-cash securities impairment .
RNG volumes accelerated: 62.0M gallons (+8.8% y/y; +4.0% q/q), supported by downstream demand and customer wins; management emphasized breadth of early X15N heavy-duty engine adoption as the 2025 growth catalyst (3–5M gallons across 25+ fleets) .
2025 guidance introduced: GAAP net loss $(160)M–$(155)M (includes up to ~$55M accelerated depreciation for potential Pilot Flying J LNG exits and ~$53M Amazon warrant charges) and Adjusted EBITDA $50M–$55M; both exclude AFTC, which contributed ~$24M revenue in 2024, and reflect lower assumed RIN pricing .
Key stock drivers: clarity on AFTC and 45Z credits, CARB LCFS amendments (management expects LCFS improvement), and breadth of X15N adoption (Freightliner order book opening in spring 2025) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Strong volume and EBITDA momentum: RNG gallons 62.0M (+8.8% y/y), Adjusted EBITDA $23.6M (+11.6% y/y), and non-GAAP EPS $0.02 vs $0.01 y/y .
- Environmental credit tailwinds mix: RIN+LCFS revenue rose y/y ($13.5M vs $11.5M) on higher LCFS prices, higher dairy RNG mix and share of RIN values, partially offset by lower RIN prices; AFTC also higher y/y in Q4 ($6.1M vs $5.9M) .
- Management confidence and strategy: “finishing the year strong… exceeding the high end of our Adjusted EBITDA guidance range” and optimism on policy and X15N-led adoption breadth (“singles vs home runs” in 2025) .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP loss widened: $(30.2)M Q4 loss includes $18.0M Amazon warrant contra-revenue and an $8.1M non-cash securities impairment; SG&A up ~$3.8M (wages/insurance); upstream equity losses higher as dairy projects ramp .
- 2025 outlook step-down: Adj. EBITDA guide $50–$55M vs 2024 $76.6M, reflecting exclusion of AFTC (~$24M 2024 revenue) and lower RIN assumptions; CFO also flagged depreciation tied to Pilot LNG exit .
- Upstream EBITDA still negative in 2025: RNG upstream expected to remain a modest drag (Adj. EBITDA $(9.5)M to $(6.5)M), with Idaho operations depressing 2025 but turning once monetization begins in 2026 .

Financial Results

Financial summary – sequential comparison (oldest → newest):

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)	$97.954	$104.876	$109.326
GAAP EPS	$(0.07)	$(0.08)	$(0.13)
Non-GAAP EPS	$0.01	$0.02	$0.02
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$18.946	$21.280	$23.610
RNG Gallons Sold (M)	57.1	59.6	62.0

Year-over-year Q4 comparison:

Metric	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)	$106.857	$109.326
GAAP EPS	$(0.08)	$(0.13)
Non-GAAP EPS	$0.01	$0.02
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$21.151	$23.610
RNG Gallons Sold (M)	57.0	62.0

Margins (calculated from reported revenue and cost of sales):

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Gross Margin %	34.7%	30.2%	31.6%

Note: Gross margin % = (Total revenue − Product cost of sales − Service cost of sales) ÷ Total revenue; all inputs from referenced statements of operations.

Sources of revenue breakdown:

Revenue Source ($M)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Fuel sales (net of Amazon warrant)	$57.4	$64.1	$69.1
Change in FV of derivatives	$0.1	$(1.4)	$(0.4)
RIN Credits	$9.5	$11.1	$9.6
LCFS Credits	$4.4	$1.9	$3.9
AFTC	$6.0	$6.4	$6.1
Station construction sales	$5.6	$7.8	$6.1
O&M services	$14.5	$14.4	$14.3
Other services	$0.5	$0.6	$0.6
Total Revenue	$98.0	$104.9	$109.3

KPIs – volumes:

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
RNG gallons sold (M)	57.1	59.6	62.0
Total fuel volume (M GGEs)	70.4	73.5	78.5
O&M services volume (M GGEs)	67.9	65.6	64.4

Segment profitability (Adjusted EBITDA):

Segment	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Fuel distribution Adj. EBITDA ($M)	$24.032	$27.140
RNG equity investments Adj. EBITDA ($M)	$(2.881)	$(3.530)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
GAAP Net Loss	FY 2025	N/A (new)	$(160)M to $(155)M; includes ~$53M Amazon warrant charges and up to ~$55M accelerated depreciation for potential exit of 55 Pilot Flying J LNG stations; excludes AFTC	New
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	N/A (new)	$50M to $55M; excludes AFTC	New
Fuel Distribution Adj. EBITDA	FY 2025	N/A (new)	$59.5M to $61.5M	New
RNG Upstream Adj. EBITDA	FY 2025	N/A (new)	$(9.5)M to $(6.5)M	New
Revenue (Mgmt outlook)	FY 2025	N/A (new)	~ $400M (management commentary, not formal guidance)	New
AFTC assumption	FY 2025	—	Excluded (was ~$24M revenue in 2024)	New
Depreciation item	FY 2025	—	Up to ~$55M accelerated D&A for Pilot LNG exit included in GAAP loss	New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
Heavy-duty X15N adoption	Q2: Early demo/testing; order book open; adoption breadth matters . Q3: More testing across large fleets; breadth over large single orders; UPS mention via Cummins; Canada corridor buildout .	2025 volumes modest (3–5M gallons) across 25+ fleets; Freightliner opening Apr/May to broaden adoption; focus on breadth vs “home runs” .	Improving breadth; 2026–27 inflection
Regulatory credits (AFTC, 45Z)	Q2: AFTC expiring end-2024; 45Z guidance expected; bipartisan RNG support . Q3: CARB LCFS vote expected to strengthen program; push for 45Z guidance .	2025 guide excludes AFTC; 45Z uncertain (initial $1–$2/gal with methodology concerns; mgmt argues $3–$5 possible); LCFS OAL pause seen as technical; expect recovery to low-$70s .	Mixed near-term; potential upside on policy clarity
LCFS pricing	Q2: LCFS revenue timing normalized; lower average prices y/y . Q3: Expect CARB changes to support prices over 2025–26 .	2025 assumption low-$70/credit; short-term OAL pause to be resolved .	Stabilizing to improving
Upstream RNG ramp	Q2: 6 projects producing; monetize ITCs; more projects late-2025/2026 . Q3: Run-rate growing; upstream still negative but narrowing; large Idaho project in 2026 .	2025 upstream Adj. EBITDA negative; Idaho ops cost drag until late-2025 startup; pathway/CI approvals pending .	Gradual improvement; 2026 monetization
Hydrogen stations	Q3: Won Riverside Transit hydrogen station; FOOTHILL completed .	Reiterated hydrogen design/build capability for transit (services model) .	Steady; ancillary to core RNG
Canada trucking	Q3: Tourmaline JV corridor in Western Canada; multiple stations opened/underway .	Continues as strategic corridor; economics attractive with low gas prices .	Expanding footprint

Management Commentary

CEO: “finishing the year strong… ending 2024 at the low end of our GAAP loss guidance range and exceeding the high end of our Adjusted EBITDA guidance range… growing fuel volumes of RNG… before the anticipated impact… with the new Cummins X15N engine” .
CEO on 2025 X15N adoption: “early adoption… will be with a lot of singles versus home runs… combination of existing natural gas truck operators as well as new fleets… breadth… the better for the market” .
CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA of $76.6M for 2024 exceeded the top end of our 2024 guidance… we continued to experience strong results from our fueling operations plus we saw an increase in fuel volumes” .
CFO on 2025 drivers: excluding AFTC (~$24M in 2024), and ~20–30% lower RIN prices vs 2024, together reduce 2025 Adj. EBITDA by roughly ~$34M vs 2024; LCFS assumed low-$70s .
CEO on Pilot LNG exit: “likely remove this equipment and save some money… although we will take a noncash hit” .

Q&A Highlights

X15N volume impact and breadth: 2025 fuel volumes attributed to X15N of 3–5M gallons across 25+ fleets; Freightliner opening in spring to broaden adoption; pricing/payback targeted ~2 years at ~$75k incremental truck cost and ~$1.50/gal fuel savings .
Credit price assumptions for 2025: RINs ~$2.40 vs ~$3.10 in 2024; LCFS in low-$70s (potential recovery post-OAL pause); AFTC excluded .
Upstream outlook: 6 projects operating; 2025 upstream Adj. EBITDA negative mainly due to Idaho ops during construction; full monetization expected in 2026 .
Capex and liquidity: 2024 capex $57M; 2025 capex ~$30M (ex-Amazon station build completion); RNG upstream capex ~$104M in 2025 (≈60% JV funded); YE 2024 unrestricted cash and investments $217.5M .
Revenue context: management’s 2025 outlook for consolidated revenue around $400M (not formal guidance) .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) comparison was unavailable for this session due to data access constraints. As a result, we do not present numerical “vs. consensus” beats/misses for Q4 2024.
Reported non-GAAP EPS was $0.02 and Adjusted EBITDA $23.6M for Q4 2024; revenue was $109.3M .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q4 showed solid operational momentum: sequential revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and RNG volumes all rose; non-GAAP EPS improved y/y, underscoring resilient downstream economics despite mixed credit pricing .
2025 guide reset reflects policy/pricing conservatism (AFTC exclusion, lower RINs) and noncash depreciation; upside levers are AFTC reinstatement, stronger LCFS, and 45Z clarification .
X15N is a breadth story in 2025 with larger volume impact in 2026–27; monitor Freightliner’s order book opening and early multi-fleet adoption as leading indicators .
Downstream remains the cash engine; upstream is a 2026 earnings story as large dairy projects (e.g., Idaho) transition from construction/ops drag to monetization .
Policy catalysts (AFTC, 45Z, CARB LCFS) can materially swing earnings; near-term credit price normalization (RIN/LCFS) and volume mix are meaningful to quarterly results .
Balance sheet provides flexibility (YE 2024 cash + ST investments $217.5M); 2025 capex moderates, with upstream spend largely JV-funded .
Tactical positioning: watch for breadth of fleet announcements on X15N, policy headlines (AFTC/45Z/LCFS), and quarterly credit realization/mix; potential estimate revisions likely bias lower near-term vs 2024 actuals, with optionality to the upside on policy outcomes .

Additional Q4-period commercial updates:

New/expanded fueling wins and infrastructure: LA County Sanitation District RNG station expansion (~1M gal/year), cross-industry RNG contracts (DHL, Food Express, LA Metro, Estes), and a Riverside Transit hydrogen station design/build award .

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary